A few weeks ago I put together a piece explaining what each of the new team statistics on our new and improved box score represented. They look a little something like this:
While from the outside looking in this may just seem like a completely awesome way to show off what we’ve been working on the past few years. The new boxscore layout is really to help the fans enjoy the game.
We had to sit down and ask a question that I’m sure has been asked in many an ultimate circle, “What stats actually matter?” The answer to someone like me is “all of them”. Since your average ultimate fan isn’t completely insane like I am, the new mission becomes weeding out hundreds of possible statistics to which ones create a perfect snapshot of a game.
With our new layout we’re pretty confident that we’ve accomplished just that. a team combines to “win” a majority of the above categories, just how likely are they to win that game. With 129 MLU games to look at we can give a pretty accurate assessment of what teams need to do in order to win games. Does defense actually win championships? Does touching the disc more translate to better scoring outputs? Look no further! I’ve compiled a list so you don’t have to!
We can skip the most obvious stat of goals scored… If you score more goals than your opponent you win the game… Duh… This list is sorted by 12 team specific statistics and the percentage of the time over the first 3 seasons of MLU play that if a team record a high total in that particular category, that they went on to win that game.
Before we hit the list, here’s a little refresher of the terms definitions:
This is the same basic glossary that you can see on the boxscore page by clicking on the “What’s this” button.
- TSE – 99.22%
The most obvious choice on the list. By its definition if you finish a game with a higher TSE than your opponent, that team SHOULD be the victor. Or so it would seem. Of the 129 game played there is a single game in which a team recorded a lower TSE and won. You can look for yourself here. Moral of the story? finish each quarter with a goal and convert your Offensive points? Chances are you’ll win.
- Breaks – 98.44%
Another strange entry that I assumed would work it’s way to 100% win percentage. Look here to see how you can get out broken but still get lucky in OT, win the flip, and score on double game point
- OSE – 93.79%
- DSE – 93.02%
So does offense win games? Or does defense? On the whole we can see that the having a high DSE/OSE levels out and a team wins at roughly the same percentage. Dig down a little deeper on this list and it shows that converting on a possession level on holds yields a higher winning percentage than converting possessions on break opportunities. So offenses wins games? And Championships?
- HPSE – 83.72%
- Blocks – 78.29%
Get blocks win games, obviously.
- Completion Percentage – 78.29%
Surprising that this percentage is not higher. Common sense would say that in a sport so dominated by how frequently or infrequently your team turns the disc over, the higher completion percentage your team has, the more likely your team should win
- FHSE – 75.96%
- DTE – 74.41%
- BPSE – 72.86%
- FBSE – 68.21%
- TPOP – 53.48%
Personally this is the most disappointing percentage on the list. I love TPOP and believe a lot can be inferred from a single player’s TPOP as well as a teams total TPOP. At the end of the day though? Doesn’t matter how many throws it takes a team to score, just as long as they do.